The Bitcoin (BTC) price is showing signs of a potential breakout, fueled by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Currently trading at $96,497, Bitcoin is attempting to push above the critical $95,000 resistance level amid growing odds of a rate cut at the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
With the US economy showing signs of contraction, traders are increasingly optimistic that the Fed will act sooner than expected, driving risk-on sentiment and potentially propelling Bitcoin toward $100,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source:TradingView
Fed Rate Cuts: A Bullish Catalyst for Bitcoin
Recent US GDP data revealed a shrinking economy, prompting markets to price in a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut on June 18, up from 57% on April 30 . Historically, rate cuts have been a bullish catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin, as they reduce yields on traditional investments such as bonds, pushing investors toward higher-return alternatives like cryptocurrencies.
For instance, Bitcoin rallied over 20% ahead of the last Fed rate cut on December 18, 2024 . Analysts believe a similar scenario could unfold this time, with Bitcoin poised to “blast” higher if it breaks through key technical levels.
“Traders anticipate a Federal Reserve easing and rate cuts in the future, despite a shrinking economy and low consumer confidence,” noted pseudonymous analyst BTCmoonmath in a May 1 post on X.
A contracting economy increases pressure on the Fed to stimulate growth by lowering rates, which could further fuel Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch
Currently, the $95,000 level is a pivotal zone for Bitcoin. A sustained break above this resistance could open the door for a move toward the psychological $100,000 mark , according to analysts.
Market intelligence firm Glassnode highlighted two critical technical levels in its latest report: the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $91,300 and the short-term holder (STH) cost-basis at $93,200 . Bitcoin recently reclaimed these levels during its upward swing, signaling strong bullish momentum.
“These are levels that must be broken and held for further price appreciation,” Glassnode stated. “A rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory, returning many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.”
Popular analyst AlphaBTC echoed this sentiment, stating, “Bitcoin is ready to blast through $96,000. A decisive break above $95,000 could see BTC move out of consolidation, with the next logical move being toward the $100K psychological level.”
Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin
If Bitcoin successfully consolidates above $95,000 , analysts predict a “big squeeze” into the low $100Ks , driven by increased buying pressure. This scenario aligns with the broader narrative of Bitcoin benefiting from macroeconomic tailwinds, including Fed rate cuts and institutional adoption.
However, failure to hold above $95,000 could lead to downside risks. A drop below $93,000 might push Bitcoin toward the $84,000-$88,000 range , as highlighted by several analysts. Such a decline would likely trigger profit-taking and increase bearish sentiment in the short term.
Fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasized the importance of sustained upward momentum, stating, “If price consolidates without rejection and keeps grinding upward, then that should position BTC for a move higher toward the $100K region.”
Focus Shifts to Upcoming Economic Data
The upcoming May 2 jobs report , which reveals how many jobs were added to the US economy in April, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Strong employment data might temper rate cut expectations, while weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce the case for monetary easing, further boosting Bitcoin.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s aging chart projections suggest long-term upside potential, with some analysts predicting a sixfold rally above $350,000 in the coming years. While such forecasts remain speculative, they underscore Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
What To Expect
Bitcoin’s current price action reflects growing optimism around Fed rate cuts and their potential to drive risk-on sentiment. With the $95,000 resistance level serving as a key inflection point, traders are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can consolidate above this zone or face a pullback toward $84,000-$88,000 .
As macroeconomic factors and technical indicators align, Bitcoin appears poised for a significant move in the near term. Whether it surges toward $100,000 or faces short-term setbacks, one thing is clear: Bitcoin remains a focal point for investors navigating an uncertain economic landscape.
Stay tuned for updates as the Fed’s decisions and upcoming economic data shape the next chapter for Bitcoin.
