Bitcoin predicted to reach a new all-time high of $137,000 by mid-to-late 2025 as both technical indicators and macroeconomic trends align in its favor. Analysts attribute the forecast to a bullish breakout setup on charts and over $500 billion in fresh liquidity injected into markets by the U.S. Treasury.
Analyst Highlights Bullish Chart Setup for Bitcoin
Renowned market analyst Titan of Crypto pointed to a bullish pennant forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart—a classic pattern that often leads to explosive price gains. Based on the formation, Titan expects Bitcoin to hit $137,000 between July and August 2025.
Before the uptrend can materialize, however, Bitcoin needs to reclaim key exponential moving averages. Price action faces strong resistance at the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. A close above these levels would confirm upward momentum and open the door for a rally into six-digit territory.
Liquidity From U.S. Treasury Drives Bitcoin Optimism
Beyond chart patterns, macroeconomic dynamics play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s potential rally. Since February, the U.S. Treasury has drawn down over $500 billion from its Treasury General Account (TGA), unleashing that liquidity into financial markets.
The drawdown followed the government’s debt ceiling breach on January 2, 2025, which forced the Treasury to tap reserve funds to continue operations. As a result, net Federal Reserve liquidity surged to $6.3 trillion, providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Why the Treasury General Account Influences Crypto
The TGA acts as the U.S. government’s operational account at the Federal Reserve, managing daily expenses and revenue. A decline in its balance increases overall market liquidity, boosting capital availability.
Economist Tomas noted that the TGA balance fell from $842 billion to $342 billion since February 12. If current trends continue, the drawdown may exceed $600 billion by April’s end, potentially reaching even higher if political talks delay a debt ceiling resolution.
Tax Season May Temporarily Slow Down Rally
Tomas added that tax season could briefly pull liquidity out of markets. However, he expects the Treasury to resume injecting cash in May. If this pace continues, net liquidity could reach $6.6 trillion by Q3—fueling more upside for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Strong Link With Global Liquidity Confirmed
According to analyst Lyn Alden, Bitcoin serves as a reliable gauge of global liquidity. Her research found that Bitcoin’s price direction aligns with global liquidity trends 83% of the time across 12-month periods—beating gold, the S&P 500, and other benchmarks in correlation.
Historical liquidity surges, including TGA reductions in 2022 and 2023, sparked similar crypto rallies. A repeat of this cycle may again lift Bitcoin and altcoins, especially as investors return to high-risk assets.
Resistance Remains, but Market Momentum Grows
Despite favorable conditions, Bitcoin still battles resistance at major technical levels. Titan of Crypto emphasized the need for a daily close above key EMAs to confirm a trend reversal.
If Bitcoin holds above its 200-day EMA and gains volume, institutional interest could follow. This influx of capital might amplify Bitcoin’s climb as technical and macro factors converge.
Six-Figure Bitcoin Target Backed by Key Drivers
Here are the core elements supporting the $137,000 price target:
- Bullish pennant pattern signaling upward breakout
- Resistance clearance above 200-day EMA needed
- $600B+ liquidity surge from Treasury drawdown
- Net Fed liquidity could rise to $6.6 trillion
- 83% historical correlation with global liquidity levels
- Renewed investor interest in crypto and risk assets
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Big Move Hinges on Breakout and Cash
Bitcoin predicted to achieve $137,000 by Q3 2025 if it clears technical resistance and if the U.S. Treasury continues pumping liquidity into the system. Should both conditions align, Bitcoin may not only surpass its $69,000 all-time high, but also reinforce its role as a prime asset in high-liquidity environments.
